Analyzing Multi-Question Sets in Pew’s Survey Data to Estimate the Percentages of Muslims Who Hold Moderate or Extremist Views (Part 1 of 2)

                                                                       Summary

This article documents an attempt to find out, through analyses of responses to sets of survey questions, what percentages of Muslim adults are “moderate” or extremist. Pew data were analyzed for numerous multi-question sets. Results, weighted by countries’ adult Muslim population sizes, were as follows for four of the main analyses:

66% across twenty-one countries favor at least one of death for apostasy, stoning of adulterers, or honor killings. Only 24% oppose all three of those forms of murder.

46% across seven countries viewed favorably at least one of three terrorist groups. Only 23% viewed unfavorably all three terrorist groups. Among the subset of respondents who gave definite answers to all three questions, the majority (62%) viewed favorably at least one of the three terrorist groups.

80% across thirty-six countries endorsed at least one of death for apostasy, stoning of adulterers, whippings and cutting off of hands, or making sharia (Islamic law) the official law of the country. Only 16% opposed all four extremist items.

95% across twenty-one countries endorsed at least one of a seven-item set that included death for apostasy, stoning of adulterers, whippings and cutting off of hands, honor killings, making sharia (Islamic law) the official law of the country, that a wife “must always obey” her husband, or that a wife should not have the right to divorce. Also, 84% endorsed at least two, 70% endorsed at least three, and 56% endorsed at least four of the seven items. Only 3% opposed all seven extremist items.

The results for the larger sets of questions indicate that a large majority of Muslim adults from a diverse sampling of countries holds hardline fundamentalist/extremist views, and that only a small minority could possibly be moderate.

Note: This is Part 1 of a two-part article. For Part 2 click here.

Introduction

During the past fifteen years many people in the West have discussed the question of what percentage of Muslims are “moderate.”[1]  The question can be summarized as follows: What percentage of Muslims support (a) an important set of human rights and freedoms, such as the freedom to criticize their religion publicly; freedom to openly leave their religion; etc., and equality of people regardless of gender, religion, race, sexual orientation, language, etc.; and oppose (b) hardline sharia, horrendous practices (such as female genital mutilation, honor killings, marriage of adult males to child brides, etc.), terrorism, and terrorist groups? The flip-side of that question asks What percentage of Muslims oppose (a) and support (b)?  In other words, what percentage are hardline fundamentalists/extremists?

Unfortunately, Pew Research and others have not designed their surveys with the primary aim of answering this major, two-sided question. For example, questions concerning harsh punishments for “blasphemy,” homosexuality, premarital sex, and so on, have not been asked in a standard questionnaire in a sufficiently large number of countries, either by Pew or others, to my knowledge. That is also the case for questions about other punishments, including imprisonment, for such transgressions of Islamic law. That said, Pew’s research on Muslims’ opinions, summarized in their 2013 report [2], does include some questions concerning fundamentalist or extremist views, and covers the largest number of countries and the largest overall population. I will show in this article how it is possible to make better use of Pew’s data to help answer the major question.

Pew makes the data sets for many of their surveys freely-available for download and analysis by members of the general public. With access to the microdata, one can do analyses other than those reported by the original researchers. The results of the analyses reported in this article can be verified by readers who have adequate knowledge and skill.[3] Previously, I described how to get started with a simple analysis of a Pew data set using the free statistical software PSPP. For another article, using PSPP and a common spreadsheet, I estimated the population-weighted percentages of Muslim adults who, for each question, favored or opposed harsh punishment, sharia, honor killing, and restrictions of women’s rights and freedoms. In the present article, I again use PSPP to explore some Pew data sets [4] on Muslims’ opinions on those issues, but this time I analyze responses within sets of questions.

To begin to estimate the percentages of Muslims who are moderate or extremist, it is important to gather together in the same analysis responses to multiple questions. Analyzing responses to a set of questions can reveal, for example, the percentages of Muslims who favor at least one of death for apostasy or stoning for adultery. A respondent who favored even only one of those forms of murder would not be “moderate” in the sense described briefly above. I would classify such a respondent as a likely supporter of at least one murderous practice, and thus an extremist. (Call that the “one-is-enough” criterion). Those who opposed both of those forms of murder could possibly be moderates. We could not make that conclusion definitively because many other important questions weren’t asked by the researchers. But we could then expand the analysis to include additional relevant questions, increasing our confidence in estimating the percentage of possible moderates. The same logic can be used in classifying respondents' views toward terrorist or militant fundamentalist groups such as al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Taliban. Holding a favorable view of one or more of them would indicate support for murderous extremism. A moderate would view all of them unfavorably. To get a sense of the extent of the extremism, I will also examine how many such items are favored (or opposed), and by what percentages of respondents, per country and overall. Due to the limited number of relevant questions in each dataset, the resulting figures will to some extent underestimate the percentage of extremists and overestimate the percentage of possible moderates.

Pew’s survey questions vary widely in validity, in my opinion. I’ve included in these analyses relevant questions that I believe to be, if not problem-free, at least of adequate validity and clarity. The subject matter of these questions deals directly with real-world actions, laws, policies, or active groups that are hardline fundamentalist or extremist. As I will discuss in a forthcoming article, I excluded Pew’s “suicide bombing and other forms of violence” question due to its lack of clarity. Subsequent articles will present critical evaluations and quantitative analyses of other questions in Pew’s surveys of Muslims’ views as well as those from other research organizations.

All results reported in this article are for the general samples of adult Muslims surveyed by Pew, except for analyses of subsets in 5.2, 5.3, and 5.5. Using Pew’s age structure estimates of the Muslim population in each country, I estimated the country population sizes for Muslims 18 years of age or older (see Appendix A of the previous article). I’ve used those estimates in calculating the population-weighted percentages for each response set reported below. Following Pew’s “Instructions for Downloading Datasets,” I’ve applied their weight variable in obtaining the response choice percentages for individual countries. Readers who wish to replicate analyses from the present article may find it helpful to see the previous article’s instructions for PSPP in Analysis 5 (“Honor” killings) and Appendix B. The discussion of the estimated margins of error for response choice percentages in the previous article is applicable to the combined analyses in the present article.

Analyses

1.0 Summary of the Main Analyses

Hardline fundamentalism/extremism versus “moderation” in populations of Muslim adults as tested by analyses of multi-question sets.

Note: Some question wording not shown in this article is quoted in the previous article.

Table 1.0

Percentages of Muslims Who Favor at Least One Vs. Oppose All Extremist/ Hardline Fundamentalist Items Per Question Set
Pew Survey	Global Attitudes 2010		Percentage
	The World’s Muslims 2013, Tolerance and Tension 2010		Favor at	Oppose	Rmndr.*
Question Set			least one	all
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers			58	37	6
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, honor killings			66	24	11
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whippings and cutting off hands			63	32	5
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whippings/cutting, honor killings			69	21	9
Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda			46	23	31
Hamas, Hezb., al-Q., death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whip./cut.			78	12	9
Death for apost., ston. adultr., whip/cut, terror groups, restrict women			84	10	7
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whippings/cutting, sharia			80	16	4
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whip./cut., honor killings, sharia			83	11	6
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whip./cut., sharia, religious leaders should only be men			91	7	2
Death for apostasy, stoning adulterers, whip./cut., honor killings, sharia, wife must always obey husband, wife has no right to divorce			95	3	2
Notes. Percentages are weighted by countries’ Muslim adult population sizes. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Datasets: Pew Global Attitudes 2010, Pew Africa Survey 2009, Pew The World’s Muslims 2012.
Wording of questions and response options is simplified in this table. See text and original Pew sources for exact wording.
*Remainder is the percentage of Muslim adults who neither favored at least one nor opposed all items in the question set.
Pew’s terrorist group questions elicited some very high percentages of don’t know responses. See analyses 5.1, 5.2, 5.3.

1. Favor death for apostasy, or stoning for adultery, or both? Oppose both?

1.1. Survey Report: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010, “Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah,” page 35. [5]

Pew’s response code: 1 = favor, 2 = oppose, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

Instructions for doing the combined analysis with PSPP: Select Transform, then Compute Variable. Write the variable label and numeric expression (see below). Each numeric expression makes a binary variable, scoring 1 (one) for cases that fit the criteria and 0 (zero) for cases that do not. Once you’ve created the new variables, check a small random sample of their cases to make sure their scores are correct, then run a Crosstabs analysis on each to obtain the percentages. The remainder consists of the cases that don’t fit the criteria of the new variables. Readers can fairly easily verify the percentages for individual countries listed in the tables below by following this procedure.

Expressions:

Favor at least one: (Q108d = 1) | (Q108c = 1)

Oppose both: (Q108d = 2) & (Q108c = 2)

Table 1.1

Combined analysis of question set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose both	Rmdr.	Favor at least one	Oppose both	Remainder	Sum
	least one
Egypt	92	5	2	44143034	2551620	1173745	47868400
Jordan	91	6	3	3060198	197098	89904	3347200
Pakistan	86	8	6	83489461	7717434	6333105	97540000
Nigeria	64	34	2	22176146	11615229	832625	34624000
Indonesia	47	49	4	67272650	69191680	5302070	141766400
Lebanon	24	74	1	442182	1346784	27034	1816000
Turkey	17	76	7	8119219	37183186	3427595	48730000
Population Sum				228702891	129803031	17186079	375692000
Population-Weighted Percentage				60.88	34.55	4.57	100.00
Note: Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.

Comment: A population-weighted 61% of Muslim adults across seven countries favor either death for apostasy or stoning adulterers, or both, while 35% oppose both.

1.2. Survey Reports: Pew, “The World’s Muslims,” 2013, p. 219 (Q92b apostasy) and p. 221 (Q92d adultery), full report pdf; Pew Forum, “Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa,” 2010, full report pdf.[6] Note that in the sub-Saharan full report and in its data file, the questions are numbered Q95c (apostasy) and Q95e (adultery).

Expressions:

Favor at least one: (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1)

Oppose both: (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2)

Table 1.2

Combined analysis of question set: Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose both	Rmdr.	Favor at least one	Oppose both	Remainder	Sum
	least one
Egypt	96	3	1	46106625	1275859	485916	47868400
Jordan	92	6	2	3066845	216939	63416	3347200
Pakistan	91	3	6	88581211	3346948	5611842	97540000
Afghanistan	91	7	2	13238391	1031726	311484	14581600
Palestin. T.	83	12	5	1654714	234584	100302	1989600
Djibouti	73	20	7	361477	97157	35366	494000
Niger	73	21	6	4929947	1384972	426681	6741600
Malaysia	68	17	15	7560401	1856102	1652697	11069200
Iraq	66	22	12	10364508	3420345	1913546	15698400
Bangladesh	65	28	7	53917596	23485849	6058556	83462000
Senegal	63	35	2	3732635	2031568	122197	5886400
Mali	62	29	9	4181635	1942536	571429	6695600
Guinea Biss.	62	32	6	213563	110893	19544	344000
DR Congo	54	36	11	231392	155037	45972	432400
Tanzania	48	50	2	3833103	4025885	160612	8019600
Nigeria	45	50	5	15682415	17244451	1697134	34624000
Indonesia	45	49	6	63944464	68854139	8967797	141766400
Ghana	44	51	5	898173	1052169	102457	2052800
Uganda	44	53	4	744922	899227	63850	1708000
Chad	43	56	1	1267286	1671680	21434	2960400
Kenya	42	57	1	749760	1019040	26400	1795200
Mozambique	41	55	4	847896	1131540	73764	2053200
Cameroon	41	56	2	692901	946736	41162	1680800
Liberia	41	52	7	97204	125591	17204	240000
Ethiopia	36	62	2	4942967	8543400	335634	13822000
Tunisia	30	67	3	2241164	4981983	193252	7416400
Kyrgyzstan	29	64	7	850599	1891619	190983	2933200
Tajikistan	27	61	12	1007065	2267448	466687	3741200
Lebanon	23	75	2	411025	1360557	44417	1816000
Russia	20	70	10	2168004	7558809	1105587	10832400
Azerbaijan	16	77	7	1059479	5027123	470197	6556800
Turkey	13	84	3	6267223	40807015	1655762	48730000
Kosovo	10	70	19	114768	780318	212114	1107200
Bosnia-Hrz.	9	87	5	119459	1180543	62797	1362800
Albania	7	83	10	135280	1525484	186036	1846800
Kazakhstan	6	90	4	459135	6788848	310017	7558000
Population Sum				346675233	220274121	33824246	600773600
Population-Weighted Percentage				57.70	36.67	5.63	100.00
Note: 36-Country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Sources: Pew Research, Africa Survey 2009 and The World’s Muslims 2012 Datasets.

Comment: A population-weighted 58% of Muslim adults across 36 countries favor death for apostasy or stoning of adulterers, or both, while 37% oppose both. About 347 million Muslim adults across the 36 countries—with about 89 million in Pakistan, 64 million in Indonesia, and 54 million in Bangladesh—favor at least one of the two extreme punishments.

2. Favor at least one of death for apostasy, or stoning for adultery, or “honor” killing? Oppose all three?

Survey Report: Pew, “The World’s Muslims,” (2013). The “honor” killing Q53 and Q54 tables are on p. 190 of the complete report pdf.

Note: I presented results of an analysis of Q53/Q54 (“honor” killing of a male or female) in the previous article. Consistent with that previous analysis, I do not score “rarely justified” responses as moderate or as (sufficiently) extremist in the present analysis.

Pew’s response code for Q53/Q54: 1 = often justified, 2 = sometimes justified, 3 = rarely justified, 4 = never justified, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused

My classification for Q53/Q54: moderate option = 4, clear extremist option <= 2.

Expressions:

Favor at least one:  (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | ((Q53 <= 2) | (Q54 <= 2))

Oppose all three: (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & ((Q53 = 4) & (Q54 = 4))

Table 2

Combined analysis of three-item set: Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose all	Remainder
	Least One	Three
Egypt	98	0	1	47868400
Afghanistan*	95	2	3	14581600
Jordan	93	3	4	3347200
Pakistan	92	2	5	97540000
Palestinian T.	91	4	5	1989600
Iraq*	85	6	10	15698400
Niger	78	10	12	6741600
Bangladesh	74	13	13	83462000
Malaysia	73	11	16	11069200
Indonesia	49	39	12	141766400
Lebanon	46	40	14	1816000
Tajikistan	42	33	24	3741200
Kyrgyzstan	41	38	21	2933200
Tunisia	41	46	13	7416400
Russia	32	44	24	10832400
Kosovo	27	43	29	1107200
Turkey	27	57	16	48730000
Albania	22	56	22	1846800
Azerbaijan	21	64	15	6556800
Bosnia-Herz.	15	69	16	1362800
Kazakhstan	10	73	17	7558000
Population	340645530	122778303	54541366	517965200
Pop.-Wtd. %	65.77	23.70	10.53	100.00
Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative wording for Q53/Q54 was used.

Comments: Among Muslim adults across the 21 countries, about 66% favor at least one of the three forms of murder, while only 24% oppose all three. If Q54 is included in the analysis instead of Q53/Q54, then 65% favor at least one, 25% oppose all three, and a remainder of about 10% had other response combinations.

3. Favor at least one of death for apostasy, or stoning for adultery, or whipping/ cutting off of hands for crimes like theft? Oppose all three?

3.1. Survey Report: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010, “Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Favor at least one: (Q108d = 1) | (Q108c = 1) | (Q108b =1)

Oppose all three: (Q108d = 2) & (Q108c = 2) & (Q108b = 2)

Table 3.1

Combined analysis of three-question set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers, Q108b whippings and cutting off of hands.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose all	Remainder
	Least One	Three
Egypt	95	3	2	47868400
Jordan	95	4	2	3347200
Pakistan	89	6	5	97540000
Nigeria	72	27	2	34624000
Indonesia	53	44	3	141766400
Lebanon	26	73	1	1816000
Turkey	20	74	6	48730000
Population	245795331	115954179	13942490	375692000
Pop.-Wtd. %	65.42	30.86	3.71	100.00
Notes: Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.

3.2. Survey Reports: Pew, The World’s Muslims, 2013 (Q92b apostasy, Q92d adultery, Q92c whipping/cutting); Pew, Sub-Saharan, 2010, (Q95c apostasy, Q95e adultery, Q95d whipping/cutting)

Favor at least one: (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | (Q92c = 1)

Oppose all three: (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & (Q92c = 2)

Table 3.2

Combined analysis of three-question set: Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose all	Remainder
	Least One	Three
Egypt	97	2	1	47868400
Jordan	94	4	2	3347200
Pakistan	92	3	5	97540000
Afghanistan	92	6	2	14581600
Niger	86	11	4	6741600
Palestinian T.	84	11	5	1989600
Djibouti	80	14	6	494000
Iraq	74	17	9	15698400
Malaysia	72	14	14	11069200
Bangladesh	71	22	7	83462000
Mali	71	23	6	6695600
Senegal	70	28	2	5886400
Guinea Bissau	69	26	5	344000
DR Congo	62	28	10	432400
Cameroon	57	41	2	1680800
Tanzania	56	43	2	8019600
Liberia	54	40	6	240000
Nigeria	54	43	3	34624000
Chad	54	46	1	2960400
Ghana	53	43	4	2052800
Uganda	52	44	3	1708000
Indonesia	50	43	6	141766400
Mozambique	50	47	4	2053200
Kenya	45	53	2	1795200
Kyrgyzstan	44	52	4	2933200
Ethiopia	39	58	3	13822000
Tajikistan	33	56	11	3741200
Tunisia	33	65	3	7416400
Russia	31	60	9	10832400
Lebanon	24	73	3	1816000
Azerbaijan	19	75	7	6556800
Turkey	18	79	4	48730000
Kazakhstan	15	80	5	7558000
Bosnia-Herzeg.	15	80	5	1362800
Kosovo	12	69	19	1107200
Albania	12	77	11	1846800
Population	375990689	194211558	30571353	600773600
Pop.-Wtd. %	62.58	32.33	5.09	100.00
Note: 36-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Sources: Pew Research, Africa Survey 2009 and The World’s Muslims 2012 Datasets.

4. Favor at least one of death for apostasy, or stoning for adultery, or whipping/ cutting off of hands for crimes like theft, or honor killing? Oppose all four?

Survey Report: Pew, The World’s Muslims, 2013

Favor at least one: (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | (Q92c = 1) | ((Q53 <=2) | (Q54 <= 2))

Oppose all four: (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & (Q92c = 2) & ((Q53 = 4) & (Q54 = 4))

Table 4

Combined analysis of four-item set: Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings.
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose all	Remainder
	Least One	Four
Egypt	99	0	1	47868400
Afghanistan*	96	2	3	14581600
Jordan	95	3	3	3347200
Pakistan	94	2	5	97540000
Palestinian T.	92	3	4	1989600
Iraq*	88	5	7	15698400
Niger	88	5	6	6741600
Bangladesh	78	11	11	83462000
Malaysia	76	9	15	11069200
Indonesia	54	35	11	141766400
Kyrgyzstan	53	31	16	2933200
Tajikistan	48	31	21	3741200
Lebanon	46	40	14	1816000
Tunisia	42	44	13	7416400
Russia	41	38	21	10832400
Turkey	30	55	15	48730000
Kosovo	28	43	29	1107200
Albania	23	55	22	1846800
Azerbaijan	23	63	14	6556800
Bosnia-Herz.	21	64	15	1362800
Kazakhstan	19	65	15	7558000
Population	358027551	110956431	48981218	517965200
Pop.-Wtd. %	69.12	21.42	9.46	100.00
Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative wording for Q53/Q54 was used.

5. View favorably at least one of the following terrorist/militant groups: Hamas, or Hezbollah, or Al-Qaeda, (or the Taliban)? View unfavorably all three?

 5.1 Survey Report: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010, “Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Q7. “Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of (INSERT)?

…n.   Hamas               o.   Hezbollah             p.   al Qaeda…”

Pew’s response code: very favorable = 1, somewhat favorable = 2, somewhat unfavorable = 3, very unfavorable = 4, don’t know = 8, refused = 9.

Expressions:

View favorably at least one: (Q7n <= 2) | (Q7o <= 2) | (Q7p <= 2)

View unfavorably all three: ((Q7n = 3) | (Q7n = 4)) & ((Q7o = 3) | (Q7o = 4)) & ((Q7p = 3) | (Q7p = 4))

Note: For Pakistan only, the al-Qaeda question was asked in Q35b. To obtain the results for Pakistan, use Q35b instead of Q7p in the above expressions.

Table 5.1

Combined analysis of three-question set: Q7n Hamas, Q7o Hezbollah, Q7p al-Qaeda.
	Percentage			Population
	View Favorably	View Unfavorably	Remainder
	At Least One	All Three
Jordan	85	11	3	3347200
Egypt	68	24	8	47868400
Nigeria	63	15	22	34624000
Indonesia	54	21	25	141766400
Lebanon	53	42	4	1816000
Pakistan*	33	8	59	97540000
Turkey	10	65	25	48730000
Population	171207405	87318253	117166342	375692000
Pop.-Wtd. %	45.57	23.24	31.19	100.00
Notes: Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.

Comments:

A plurality of 46% viewed favorably at least one, and a minority of 23% viewed unfavorably all three of the terrorist groups.

The very large percentages of “don’t know” responses to these questions in Nigeria, Indonesia, Turkey, and (especially) Pakistan contribute to the high figures in the remainder column and complicate the interpretation of the results. Therefore, the next analysis (5.2) will include only the subset of respondents who gave definite answers (very/somewhat favorable or very/somewhat unfavorable) to all three questions. Analysis 5.2 will examine the distribution of extremism scores, as described below.

Calculating extremism scores. Instructions for PSPP: For each of the relevant question variables in the set, use the Compute Variable function to make a new variable that scores 1 point for an extremist response, and 0 (zero) for all other responses. For example, to make the variable for the al-Qaeda question Q7p, you would write the numeric expression Q7p <= 2 to score a one or a two “favorable” response. (You could label the “Target Variable” in this example FavQ7p). The numeric expression produces a binary variable consisting of 1s and 0s, where 1 indicates that a respondent favored the terrorist group and 0 indicates the respondent did not view it favorably. Note that “did not view it favorably” includes all responses other than the “favorable” 1 and 2, including the “unfavorable” responses 3 or 4, or “don’t know,” or “refused” (though for the definite answer subset in 5.2, below, the dk/refs are excluded anyway). Once you’ve made a binary (1 versus 0) extremism variable for each item, then sum the scores of those binary variables using the Compute Variable function, making a summary extremism variable that has a score for each respondent. Use Crosstabs to obtain the distribution of extremism scores for each country by entering country as rows and summary extremism variable as columns.

Extremism Score (Scale 0 – 3): (FavQ7n) + (FavQ7o) + (FavQ7p)

Reminder: For Pakistan only, the al-Qaeda question was asked in Q35b, not Q7p.

5.2 Analysis of the definite answer subset: The subset includes only respondents who gave a definite opinion (very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable) for all three questions. Create a filter variable which you can then use to select only respondents with definite answers to all three questions for the analysis. In a previous article, I provided instructions for how to make and apply a filter variable. The expression for the definite answer subset here can be as follows: (Q7n <= 4) & (Q7o <= 4) & (Q7p <= 4)

Table 5.2        

 

Analysis of subset who had definite answers to all three questions. Combined analysis of three-question set: Q7n Hamas, Q7o Hezbollah, Q7p Al-Qaeda. Extremism Score Scale: 0 – 3.
	Percentage					Subset
	Number of Terrorist Groups Viewed Favorably
	Zero	One	Two	Three	At Least 1	Population	%
Jordan	13	33	39	15	87	3001415	90
Nigeria	22	12	18	48	78	23570033	68
Egypt	27	45	22	6	73	42714127	89
Pakistan	31	13	34	23	69	25660861	26
Indonesia	32	15	30	23	68	94125769	66
Lebanon	44	4	50	1	56	1719337	95
Turkey	88	6	2	4	12	36091207	74
Population	87318253	43172976	53092651	43298869	139564496	226882749
P.-W. %	38.49	19.03	23.40	19.08
P.W.C %	100	62	42
Notes: Seven-country subset population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.

Comments:

1. The definite-answer subset proportion of the total population is .6039 (i.e., 226882749 / 375692000). Multiplying .6039 by .3849 (the proportion of the subset who viewed none of the three terrorist groups favorably) = .2324, or 23.24%, confirming the result shown in Table 5.1, that is, the percentage who viewed all three unfavorably.

2. About 62% (61.51%) of the subset viewed favorably at least one of the three terrorist groups.

3. A subset population-weighted 38.49% did not indicate a favorable view any of the three terrorist groups. Because this subset has no (zero) don’t know/refused responses, and 61.51% viewed favorably at least one terrorist group, we can deduce that 38.49% viewed all three terrorist groups unfavorably (also see Comment 1).

4. In Pakistan, about 69% of those with definite answers for all three questions favored at least one of the terrorist groups. However, Pakistan’s definite-answer subset is only about 26% of its general sample, so the 69% should be regarded with caution.

5. Indonesia has a 41% share of the subset population.

One can also calculate the mean extremism scores for each country. In PSPP, use the Means option from Compare Means (located under the Analyze menu), using country as the independent variable and the summary extremism score variable (see “Calculating extremism scores” above, just before 5.2) as the dependent variable, to obtain the country mean extremism scores. The output can then be exported to a spreadsheet for population-weighting. For the definite answer subset in 5.2, the (subset) population-weighted mean extremism score was 1.23 (range: .22 for Turkey to 1.91 for Nigeria), which indicates that on average the definite answer subset viewed favorably a little more than one of the three terrorist groups. Of the seven countries, only Turkey had a mean of less than 1.

5.3 The subset of those who responded “don’t know/refused” to at least one of the three terrorist group questions constitutes .3961 of the total population (1 - .6039). It includes all the remaining data that was not captured in the definite answer subset. Structurally, its maximum number of definite responses is two, though many of its respondents had one or zero definite responses. Within this subset, a (subset) population-weighted 21.3% viewed at least one terrorist group as favorable, and 7.2% viewed two as unfavorable. The remaining 71.5% of the subset either responded with don’t know/refused to all three questions, or with one unfavorable and two don’t know/refused responses. With the majority of the subset dominated by don’t know/refused responses, it would not be sensible to calculate a mean extremism score. Pakistan has a 48% share of this subset population. For Pakistan, the subset made up 73.7% of its general sample. In the subset in Pakistan, 19.5% viewed favorably at least one terrorist group while 3.8% viewed two as unfavorable.

5.4 Survey Report: Pew Global Attitudes, 2013, “Muslim Publics Share Concerns About Extremist Groups.” [7]

Q9. “Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of (INSERT)?

…j. Hamas                  k. Hezbollah               l. al Qaeda…               …q. The Taliban…” 

Pew’s response code: very favorable = 1, somewhat favorable = 2, somewhat unfavorable = 3, very unfavorable = 4, don’t know = 8, refused = 9.

View favorably at least one: (Q9j <= 2) | (Q9k <= 2) | (Q9l <= 2) | (Q9q <= 2)

View unfavorably all four: ((Q9j = 3) | (Q9j = 4)) & ((Q9k = 3) | (Q9k = 4)) & ((Q9l = 3) | (Q9l = 4)) & ((Q9q = 3) | (Q9q = 4))

Note: For Pakistan only, questions for al-Qaeda and the Taliban were Q41b and Q41d, respectively. To obtain the results for Pakistan, use Q41b instead of Q9l, and Q41d instead of Q9q, in the above expressions.

Table 5.4

Combined analysis of four-question set: Q9j Hamas, Q9k Hezbollah, Q9l al-Qaeda, Q9q the Taliban.
	Percentage			Population
	View Favorably	View Unfavorably	Remainder
	At Least One	All Four
Egypt	77	20	3	51280120
Lebanon	65	33	2	1899040
Palestinian T.	64	26	10	2251320
Jordan	62	34	5	3740560
Tunisia	54	19	27	7706920
Malaysia	48	17	35	12110320
Indonesia	45	22	33	148928360
Nigeria	34	18	47	38928040
Pakistan*	30	8	63	105930760
Senegal	22	32	46	6546880
Turkey	15	58	27	51275800
Population	175932900	95273757	159391463	430598120
Pop.-Wtd. %	40.86	22.13	37.02	100.00
Notes: 11-country population (2013 est.) is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2013 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, questions about Al-Qaeda and the Taliban were Q41b and Q41d, respectively.

Comments about Table 5.4:

1. The 2013 Muslim (age 18+) population estimates for the countries were calculated by making a linear interpolation between Pew’s 2010 and 2020 estimates, but otherwise were calculated the same way as the 2010 Muslim (age 18+) population estimates.

2. A population-weighted 41% of Muslim adults viewed favorably at least one of the four terrorist/extremist groups, while 22% viewed unfavorably all four of them.

3. Except for Egypt, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Jordan, the results for the other seven countries are obscured by very high levels of “don’t know” responses, resulting in the high percentages in the Remainder column. These very high levels of don’t know responses also significantly obscure the population-weighted results overall because the populations of these other seven countries together make up 86% of the eleven-country population.

5.5 Analysis of the definite-answer subset of these 2013 data showed that a (subset) population-weighted 56.7% viewed favorably at least one of the four terrorist/extremist groups, while 43.3% viewed all four unfavorably. The definite-answer subset constituted 51.04% of the general sample.

6. Favor at least one of death for apostasy, stoning for adultery, whipping/cutting off hands for crimes like theft, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Al-Qaeda. Oppose/ view unfavorably all of these?

Survey Report: Pew Global Attitudes 2010, “Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Favor at least one: (Q108d = 1) | (Q108c = 1) | (Q108b = 1) | (Q7n <= 2) | (Q7o <= 2) | (Q7p <= 2)

Oppose/ view unfavorably all six: (Q108d = 2) & (Q108c = 2) & (Q108b = 2) & ((Q7n = 3) | (Q7n = 4)) & ((Q7o = 3) | (Q7o = 4)) & ((Q7p = 3) | (Q7p = 4))

Reminder: For Pakistan only, the question about Al-Qaeda was Q35b, not Q7p.

Table 6.1

Combined analysis of six-question set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers, Q108b whippings/cutting off of hands, Q7n Hamas, Q7o Hezbollah, Q7p Al-Qaeda
	Percentage			Population
	Favor at	Oppose/Unfav.	Remainder
	least one	all six
Jordan	98	1	1	3347200
Egypt	97	3	1	47868400
Pakistan*	94	1	5	97540000
Nigeria	87	6	8	34624000
Indonesia	77	11	12	141766400
Lebanon	65	31	4	1816000
Turkey	27	51	22	48730000
Population	294271761	45805268	35614971	375692000
Pop.-Wtd. %	78.33	12.19	9.48	100.00
Notes: Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.

6.2 Extremism Score (0 – 6): (FavQ108d) + (FavQ108c) + (FavQ108b) + (FavQ7n) + (FavQ7o) + (FavQ7p)

Table 6.2

Combined analysis of 6-question set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers, Q108b whippings and cutting off of hands, Q7n Hamas, Q7o Hezbollah, Q7p Al-Qaeda. Extremism Score Scale: 0 – 6.
	Mean	Percentage of Respondents
	Extrem.	Number of Extremist Items Favored
	Score	Zero	One	Two	Three	Four	Five	Six
Jordan	3.62	2	3	14	28	25	21	7
Egypt	3.41	3	5	11	30	34	14	4
Nigeria	3.16	13	8	13	24	12	15	15
Pakistan*	2.95	6	8	11	50	12	8	5
Indonesia	2.15	23	14	22	20	10	7	4
Lebanon	1.45	35	6	41	14	3	0	0
Turkey	0.52	73	12	9	5	1	1	0
Pop.-W. Mean	2.47
Pop.-Wtd. %		21.67	10.38	15.34	27.56	12.60	7.88	4.57
P.-W. Cml. %		100	78	68	53	25	12
Notes. Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.

Comments about Table 6.2:

1. Note that 21.67% favored zero items. That 21.67% consists of 12.19% who opposed all six items, plus 9.48% remainder (compare with Table 6.1).

2. At the bottom row, the population-weighted cumulative percentage of those who favored at least four of the six extremist items was 25, while 53% favored at least three, and 68% favored at least two.

3. The high percentages of “don’t know” responses to the terrorist group questions in Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Turkey complicate the interpretation of these results.

7. Favor at least one of sharia as law of the land, death for apostasy, stoning for adultery, whipping/cutting off hands for crimes like theft? Oppose all four of these?

Survey Report: Pew, The World’s Muslims, 2013.

Favor at least one: (Q79a = 1) | (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | (Q92c = 1)

Oppose all of them: (Q79a = 2) & (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & (Q92c = 2)

Extremism Score: (FavQ79a) + (FavQ92b) + (FavQ92d) + (FavQ92c)

Pew Sub-Saharan 2010 (Q95a sharia question, Q95c apostasy, Q95e adultery Q95d whipping/cutting).

Note: Q79aRUS was the alternative version of Q79a used in Russia.

Table 7

Combined analysis of four-question set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands.  Extremism Score Scale: 0 – 4.
	Mean	Percentage of Respondents
	Extrem.	Number of Extremist Items Favored					Oppose	Rmdr.
	Score	One	Two	Three	Four	>= 1	All Four
Afghanistan	3.44	8	7	18	67	100	0	0
Pakistan	3.30	5	9	24	59	97	0	3
Egypt	3.12	7	16	34	43	100	0	0
Palestin. T.	3.04	11	11	19	53	95	3	2
Djibouti	2.81	13	11	13	52	89	8	3
Jordan	2.73	12	26	31	29	98	0	1
Niger	2.68	13	16	41	25	95	3	2
Malaysia	2.59	21	13	19	39	91	2	7
Iraq	2.44	26	20	26	25	97	1	2
Bangladesh	2.29	27	21	24	22	94	3	3
Mali	2.19	11	17	21	28	77	18	5
Senegal	2.08	14	15	23	24	76	22	2
Dem.R.Congo	2.05	22	17	16	26	80	11	9
Guinea Biss.	1.90	13	26	18	17	75	22	3
Nigeria	1.82	30	14	17	18	79	20	1
Ghana	1.77	17	13	12	25	66	30	4
Indonesia	1.68	35	16	20	10	81	14	6
Uganda	1.64	31	21	13	13	78	20	2
Kenya	1.62	29	13	10	19	71	26	3
Cameroon	1.57	22	18	20	9	70	28	2
Mozambique	1.57	32	22	11	12	77	21	2
Chad	1.55	24	14	10	18	66	33	1
Tanzania	1.55	16	18	16	14	64	34	2
Liberia	1.53	23	17	14	14	68	24	8
Ethiopia	1.37	42	12	11	10	74	25	1
Tunisia	1.30	29	7	10	14	60	36	3
Kyrgyzstan	1.07	25	17	11	3	57	35	8
Russia*	0.90	32	11	8	3	53	28	18
Lebanon	0.85	17	4	5	11	37	57	6
Tajikistan	0.81	22	12	6	5	44	39	18
Kosovo	0.43	16	4	4	2	26	40	34
Turkey	0.41	15	5	4	1	25	65	10
Bosnia-Herz.	0.38	16	5	2	1	24	68	8
Azerbaijan	0.31	17	5	1	0	23	63	14
Kazakhstan	0.30	15	4	2	0	21	67	11
Albania	0.29	9	6	2	0	18	52	30
Pop.-W. Mean	2.08
Pop.-Wtd. %		21.59	13.54	19.66	25.04	79.84	15.76	4.40
P.-W. Cml. %		80	58	45
Notes. 36-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Sources: Pew Research, Africa Survey 2009 and The World’s Muslims 2012 Datasets.
*In Russia, the alternative version of Q79a referred to making sharia the law in the “Muslim Republics of Russia.”

Comments about Table 7:

1. The percentage who favored zero (0) items of the set is the percentage of the remainder (4.40) plus the percentage who opposed all four (15.76), which = 20.16%.

2. As the bottom row shows, a population-weighted cumulative 45% favored at least three of the four extremist items, while 58% favored at least two.

(Part 2 of this article continues in the next post with Analyses 8 - 12, Discussion, and Notes and References)